Leader: Cinzia Castagnaro, Eleonora Meli
This WP is based on building of longitudinal statistical registers (population, reproductive histories, migratory background), essential to enlighten the contribution of different phenomenon to the demographic dynamic and structure (hence, to population ageing). The longitudinal register, linking data collected through different sources, enables researchers to follow, over the time, population. A life course approach is crucial to study both fertility, mortality and the integration of migrants in order to understand their effects on population and society.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: Experimental interviews (30 interviews) were carried out on the population aged 50 years and over of the electronic questionnaire for the FSS 2024 survey, to test the comprehensibility and exhaustiveness of the contents of interest. The tests carried out allowed us to introduce some changes in content and process, improving the quality of the investigation as a whole. The survey is currently in the training phase of municipal surveyors and is expected to be in the field in June 2024.
The 2016 FSS survey was integrated with the Base Register on Individuals (31/12/2022) in order to study fertility achievements. In the Register, 5433 women were traced (around 98% of the women interviewed in 2016) and for each of them the family composition was reconstructed to link any children they had between 2016 and 2022. Studies are currently underway to monitor the determinants which increase the probability of realizing the reproductive projects declared in 2016, or which constitute risk factors for the realization itself.
The 2016 FSS survey was integrated with the Base Register on Individuals (31/12/2022) in order to study fertility achievements. In the Register, 5433 women were traced (around 98% of the women interviewed in 2016) and for each of them the family composition was reconstructed to link any children they had between 2016 and 2022. Studies are currently underway to monitor the determinants which increase the probability of realizing the reproductive projects declared in 2016, or which constitute risk factors for the realization itself.
The work on developing a longitudinal statistical register to study demographic dynamics and aging has progressed steadily. The integration of multiple data sources remains a key strategy to analyze fertility, mortality, and migration over time, enabling a life course approach to population studies.
Following the successful integration of the 2016 Families, Social Subjects, and Life Paths Survey (FSS) with the Base Register on Individuals (as of 31/12/2022), efforts have been focused on examining fertility achievements. The linkage process allowed for the reconstruction of family compositions for 5,433 women (approximately 98% of those interviewed in 2016), facilitating the identification of children born between 2016 and 2022. Ongoing studies aim to assess the determinants influencing the realization of reproductive intentions expressed in 2016, as well as potential risk factors affecting fertility outcomes.
In 2024, ISTAT conducted a new edition of the FSS survey, introducing a panel module that enables re-interviewing the 2016 survey sample. This panel component allows researchers to analyze life trajectories and their determinants, providing valuable insights into factors contributing to healthy aging.
Currently, the validation phase of the collected data is underway. Preliminary results on fertility expectations are expected to be released by ISTAT in July 2025.
These advancements reinforce the importance of longitudinal data in understanding demographic changes and shaping policies aimed at fostering well-being across different population groups.
The main findings of this research were presented in Rome in October 2024 during the ISTAT conference on ISTAT-Spoke1 Age-it research projects.
Ongoing validation of the 2024 FSS survey data
Release of first results on fertility expectations: July 2025
C. Castagnaro and E. Meli, Longitudinal approach to the life course of the population 50+, The Demography of Ageing State-of-the-Art and challenges PNRR “Age-It” Research Program – Spoke 1, 14 Sept (2023)
In the early months of 2025, the foundations were laid for the definition of a call for applications aimed at selecting highly qualified professionals to be involved in research and innovation activities within the AGE-IT project, in line with the strategic objectives of the PNRR and the action lines of Mission 4 – Education and Research
A public selection (code PNRR-2DSM-AGEIT) has been launched for 2 freelance Data Scientists (middle-level) under Article 7, paragraph 6 of Legislative Decree 165/2001, with no employment relationship. The positions are temporary and highly qualified, within the project "AGE-IT" – The demography of ageing. A Data Science approach to decision-making, funded by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) and the European Union – NextGenerationEU.
The project involves IT and methodological support for creating and sharing new databases and indicators, and developing innovative tools to improve the use and circulation of statistical information among project partners.
Key tasks include: Designing and implementing longitudinal indicators on life transitions of adult and elderly populations; Developing an integrated system of indicators, reports, and dashboards tailored to the project's knowledge needs.
The main objectives are: Designing and developing longitudinal indicators; Disseminating analytical reports and results.
The public selection (code PNRR-2DSM-AGEIT) has been completed for 2 freelance Data Scientists (middle-level) under Article 7, paragraph 6 of Legislative Decree 165/2001, with no employment relationship. The positions are temporary and highly qualified, within the project "AGE-IT" – The demography of ageing. A Data Science approach to decision-making, funded by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) and the European Union – NextGenerationEU. The project involves IT and methodological support for creating and sharing new databases and indicators, and developing innovative tools to improve the use and circulation of statistical information among project partners. A repository of data and metadata connected to the project has been created waiting for the formally taking on of the 2 experts.
The two Data Scientists enrolled after the Public selection ((code PNRR-2DSM-AGEIT) , in collaboration with the ISTAT core team, are currently engaged in the design and implementation of an interactive system for the visualization of thematic focuses, aimed at enhancing the accessibility and interpretability of the data produced within the AGE-IT project. In particular, they are developing a dedicated focus on ageing, to be published on the ISTAT website and connected to the AGE-IT project portal, with the goal of promoting the dissemination of statistical information and supporting evidence-based analysis on demographic ageing.
The analytical activities on fertility intentions and their realization have continued, with a focus on examining how individuals’ reproductive plans translate into actual behavior. The analyses are being conducted by stratifying the results by age group, birth order, and educational level, in order to better understand the different patterns and determinants of fertility behavior across population subgroups.
Cinzia Castagnaro, Eleonora Meli, Letizia Mencarini and Daniele Vignoli, Fertility intentions and realization in Italy, ISTAT – Rome, 23 September 2025
Cinzia Castagnaro, Eleonora Meli, Letizia Mencarini and Daniele Vignoli, Fertility intentions and realization in Italy, AGE IT Conference – Naples, 29-31 October 2025, (forthcoming)