Leader: Raffaele Guetto (UNIFI); Other collaborator(s): Daniele Vignoli (UNIFI); Giammarco Alderotti (UNIFI); Marco Cozzani (UNIFI); Elisa Brini (UNIFI); Carlos Gil (UNIFI)
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results
The linkage between family policies and low fertility is understudied in Italy. Task 2.2 will address this void. First, it will use the best available data to analyse the impact of existing policies, at the national and (sub-)regional level, on individual and aggregate fertility in Italy, through the implementation of advanced methods for causal analysis and policy impact evaluation (e.g., fixed-effects panel models, diff-in-diff and regression discontinuity designs). Second, it will provide evidence about which changes in family policies are most likely to modify Italian couples’ fertility decision-making, by means of vignette-based factorial survey experiments, an innovation in the field of policy evaluation. Intermediate results: we explored the family policies-fertility nexus by assessing the potential role of parental leaves, childcare services, and child benefits on fertility in Italy through the use of factorial survey experiments (FSE).
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results
We surveyed 4,022 respondents aged 20-44 and exposed them to various scenarios characterised by different family policy packages. We asked them to ascribe short-term fertility intentions to a fictitious couple under each scenario. Results show that each family-friendly policy envisioned positively impacts ascribed fertility intentions. The availability of full-time, public childcare services seems more relevant than higher child benefits, whereas more generous and gender-equal parental leaves are perceived as less relevant. However, results suggest that only a consistent mix of financial benefits, parental leave schemes, and childcare provisions can boost fertility intentions, whereas marginal changes in single policy levers are most likely ineffective. The results of our FSE point out that a couple’s socioeconomic status is perceived as more important than family policies for fertility, as ascribed fertility intentions increase when both partners are employed and household income is high
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
Boosting Italian fertility should be possible through the coordinated use of family policies. Individuals must be informed about policies to embed public support in their decision-making. The aim of family-friendly policy reforms in contemporary Western countries should be filling the gap between desired and actual fertility, which is the highest in Southern European countries. Also, coherence and stability of policies are key parameters to raise policy effectiveness and combat uncertainty by instilling sufficient trust in the future for households to have children.
Data Collection on "Fertility and Family Life" in collaboration with Task 2.1 (target: 8,000 respondents):
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: We explored the family policies–fertility nexus by assessing the potential role of parental leaves, childcare services, and child benefits on fertility through a factorial survey experiment (FSE). We focus on Italy, where persistently low fertility rates are often linked to limited welfare support for families. We surveyed 4,022 respondents aged 20–44 and exposed them to various scenarios characterized by different family policy packages. We asked them to ascribe short-term fertility behavior to a fictitious couple under each scenario.
Data Analysis: Analysis of secondary data is either completed or currently in progress.
Scientific Publications: Writing of scientific articles is either completed or ongoing (refer to the publications section).
Policy Brief in collaboration with Task 2.1:
Dissemination Activities: Dissemination efforts have already begun and are ongoing.
Data Collection on "Fertility and Family Life" in collaboration with Task 2.1 (target: 8,000 respondents):
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: Results of the conducted FSE show that each family-friendly policy envisioned positively impacts ascribed fertility. The availability of full-time, public childcare services seems more relevant than higher child benefits, whereas more generous and gender-equal parental leave are perceived as less relevant. However, results suggest that only a consistent mix of financial benefits, parental leave schemes, and childcare provisions can boost fertility. In contrast, marginal changes in single policy levers are most likely ineffective. The FSE reveals that a couple’s socioeconomic status is perceived as more important than family policies for fertility: ascribed fertility increases when both partners are employed and household income is high. The policy implications of our findings are discussed in an ad hoc policy Age-It brief now ready for dissemination.
Data Analysis: Analysis of secondary data is either completed or currently in progress.
Scientific Publications: Writing of scientific articles is either completed or ongoing (refer to the publications section).
Policy Brief in collaboration with Task 2.2:
Dissemination Activities: Dissemination efforts are ongoing, as testified by several participations to scientific appointments and meetings with stakeholders.