Leader: Anna Paterno (UNIBA); Other collaborator(s):
During the next two decades, there will be profound changes within the structure of the Italian population, which will become older. The contribution of the international migration could potentially help to slow down the process. This will call to the need to carefully monitoring the situation and defining active migration policies aimed at, first, receive foreign workers to fulfil the needs of local labour markets; and, second, monitoring the life plans of foreigners, in particular, their intentions to remain in the country permanently and have children. Regarding migration flow policies, it will be necessary to try to foster the employment integration not only of migrants, but also of reunified family members and asylum seekers.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results
In the period just ended, the working group focused on the development of three different research lines. The first focuses on both the composition and fertility behaviours of Italian and foreign women of reproductive age. By standardizing and decomposing fertility indicators, we aim to uncover the underlying factors driving changes in these patterns and to help inform policies. The second line of research concerns the fertility responses of nonnationals to unemployment at the regional level to get a deeper understanding of whether and how fertility levels of different ages groups declined as overall, female and male unemployment increased. The third line, instead, follows migrants' life plans focusing on migratory intentions. In particular, we analyzed the relationship between economic downturns and return migration. We want to understand how return trajectories arise and develop according to the characteristics of returnees and those of their migratory projects and the situations experienced before, during and after migration. The three lines aim to be able to propose policies that promote integration and socially sustainable migration. To further develop these lines of research, together with other tasks of this wp, we are conducting a survey that administer a questionnaire to a very large sample of individuals. The University of Bari is coordinating the work that led to the tender awarding the contract, we are currently concluding the definition of the questionnaire and preparing it for the field work. In the wake of these lines of research, the research group was also working on the writing of five original articles that were submitted to prestigious international peer-reviewed journals.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
The major reduction in the population of young people in Italy brings to the attention of policymakers several very important challenges. Extended periods of low fertility have resulted in fewer births and a decline in the average size of female birth cohorts within the reproductive age range. Our research work has moved with the aim of overcoming the challenges posed by a highly uneven population structure and proposing policies to be undertaken to make the aging process in which we are involved more sustainable. In this regard, considering the results we have reached with our studies, with the analysis of the data consulted by the official databases and the in-depth studies carried out using micro-data available at the moment, it seems appropriate to propose policy indications strongly oriented to migrants' life projects and territorial inequalities. As far as the intentions of individuals are concerned, on the one hand, the contribution of foreigners to ageing requires policies that allow foreigners to achieve their intentions of fertility in Italy. In particular, policies focused in reducing inequalities to enable women to make their own free choices from the perspective of the realization of their fertility ideals. In addition, the policies should also enable foreigners to carry out their migration projects. Activating policies that facilitate family reunification could induce migrants to stay and their families could grow more easily. In this regard, we recommend activating ad hoc policies in times of economic uncertainty or risk aimed at increasing the economic integration of the whole family. About the interventions targeting regional inequalities, our studies reveal important territorial differences, recognizing the regional disparities in the contribution of foreign and Italian women to declining fertility, tailored policy interventions may be necessary to address specific local challenges.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: Intermediate results: we examined how employment instability affects (quasi-)completed fertility in Italy, using data from the survey Family and Social Subjects (2016). We analysed cohorts born between 1966–1975 and compared them to earlier cohorts (1951–1965) and found that fragmented employment and atypical work decrease the likelihood of parenthood and lead to fewer children. This suggests that rising labour market instability not only delays childbearing but also reduces overall fertility, particularly for men and younger cohorts. Our findings indicate that recovery from employment instability's effects on childbearing is insufficient, at least in Italy.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
The instability effects that we found are already substantial in the cohorts under study and can reasonably be expected to grow further among those cohorts excluded from our analyses as they have yet to complete their fertility histories. Italy's policy orientation - in line with that of the other Southern European countries - favouring additional labour market deregulation at the margins clashes with the increasing awareness – among social scientists – of the social and demographic consequences of rising career fragmentation and instability. From a socio-demographic perspective, if our results are to be believed, interventions seem urgent.
Content: We study the variation of fertility of foreigners in Italy as a multidimensional phenomenon, therefore considering not only changes in birth rates but also its given determinants. Subsequently we quantify the weight and variety of contributions to changes in fertility indicators (e.g. Crude Birth Rate - CBR) resulting from alterations in the population composition or behaviours of both foreign and Italian women between 2009 and 2019.
Data collection: We selected indicators between 2009 and 2019. The analysis is at the provincial level (NUTS3) and the data were collected from the ISTAT database. Based on previous studies, we selected specific fertility indicators for Italian and foreign nationality women (for the overall list of indicators adopted, we refer to the contribution cited in the outputs).
Data Analysis: Our analysis employs the Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modelling technique to dissect and isolate the impact of socio economic determinants to the natural population change in Italy, considering the sub-populations of native and foreigners women.
Dissemination Activities: Writing of scientific articles and presentations at national and international conferences.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles are ongoing.
Content: Contributing to the international debate by filling the need of studies on fertility behaviours, we disentangle the contributions of non-national and Italian women to overall population change attributable to changesin their reproductive behaviours and population composition.
Data collection: We collected demographic statistics available at the provincial level (NUTS3-107 provinces) from ISTAT for 2010 and 2019. We used this indicators: overall population change, population by sex and age for Italian and foreign women, demographic events from Italians and foreign women (births).
Data Analysis: Our analyses differentiate the contributions of foreign women to the overall population change. This approach aims to illuminate the size and diversity of contributions to changes in fertility indicators (e.g. Crude Birth Rate - CBR) attributable to shifts in the composition or behaviors of foreign and Italian women during this period.
Dissemination Activities: Writing of scientific articles and presentations at national and international conferences.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles are ongoing.
Content: The research is ongoing demonstrating that the direct and indirect contributions of international migrations to overall population change can vary between different territories. The objective is to defining the impact of foreign presence to the evolution of age structures at the municipality level. In particular, it seeks to address fundamental questions such as: How is the impact of international migration on local aging distributed?Does the distribution of international migration suggest a greater impact in some areas of the country than in others? Does the contribution of international migration to ageing vary by citizenship? Are there differences in age structure of foreigners and their fertility by citizenship?
Data collection: We collected demographic statistics available at the municipality level from ISTAT for 2010 and 2019. We used the following indicators: total fertility rate of Italian women, life expectancy at birth, internal and external net migration, percentage of foreign population, mean age of the foreign population, total fertility rate of foreign women.
Data Analysis: In order to analyse the contribution of the foreign population to ageing processes at the local level in Italy, we use data at the municipalities level, on which we apply a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) with a Bayesian approach, which allows us to study the variability due both to individual covariates and to the spatial structure of the territorial units. This type of model is frequently employed in the literature due to its capacity to account for the interaction between space and time
Dissemination Activities: Writing of scientific articles and presentations at national and international conferences.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles are ongoing.
Content: Some members of the group focused on researching how the self-perceived health status of native and European immigrant individuals changes based on the origin of the partner (native or immigrant). It focuses on the differences in health between homogamous (same origin) and heterogamous (different origin) couples, taking into account socio-demographic and contextual variables. Other members of the group continued their ongoing research on different topics.
Data collection: With reference to the research on the self-perceived health status of native and European immigrant individuals, the data comes from the European Values Study 2017–2020, which covers 37 European countries. 21 countries are selected where at least 3% of respondents were involved in a mixed union. The dataset includes information about: self-perceived health status, national origin of respondent and partner, education, employment, family composition, type of welfare in the country.
Data Analysis: Binary logistic regression models are used in three specifications (Null, Individual, Couple), distinguishing between men and women. Predicted probabilities of declaring ill health are estimated, progressively checking for individual and couple characteristics.
Scientific Publications: The work is proposed as the first systematic contribution in Europe on the association between type of couple (by origin) and self-perceived health status, with references to recent literature on migrants, health and mixed couples. The authors plan further investigations to investigate the possible "healthy migrant effect" found among immigrant women.
We presented our studies at national and international conference with publication of proceedings:
We have also published articles in scientific journals: