Leader: Anna Paterno (UNIBA); Other collaborator(s):
During the next two decades, there will be profound changes within the structure of the Italian population, which will become older. The contribution of the international migration could potentially help to slow down the process. This will call to the need to carefully monitoring the situation and defining active migration policies aimed at, first, receive foreign workers to fulfil the needs of local labour markets; and, second, monitoring the life plans of foreigners, in particular, their intentions to remain in the country permanently and have children. Regarding migration flow policies, it will be necessary to try to foster the employment integration not only of migrants, but also of reunified family members and asylum seekers.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results
In the period just ended, the working group focused on the development of three different research lines. The first focuses on both the composition and fertility behaviours of Italian and foreign women of reproductive age. By standardizing and decomposing fertility indicators, we aim to uncover the underlying factors driving changes in these patterns and to help inform policies. The second line of research concerns the fertility responses of nonnationals to unemployment at the regional level to get a deeper understanding of whether and how fertility levels of different ages groups declined as overall, female and male unemployment increased. The third line, instead, follows migrants' life plans focusing on migratory intentions. In particular, we analyzed the relationship between economic downturns and return migration. We want to understand how return trajectories arise and develop according to the characteristics of returnees and those of their migratory projects and the situations experienced before, during and after migration. The three lines aim to be able to propose policies that promote integration and socially sustainable migration. To further develop these lines of research, together with other tasks of this wp, we are conducting a survey that administer a questionnaire to a very large sample of individuals. The University of Bari is coordinating the work that led to the tender awarding the contract, we are currently concluding the definition of the questionnaire and preparing it for the field work. In the wake of these lines of research, the research group was also working on the writing of five original articles that were submitted to prestigious international peer-reviewed journals.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
The major reduction in the population of young people in Italy brings to the attention of policymakers several very important challenges. Extended periods of low fertility have resulted in fewer births and a decline in the average size of female birth cohorts within the reproductive age range. Our research work has moved with the aim of overcoming the challenges posed by a highly uneven population structure and proposing policies to be undertaken to make the aging process in which we are involved more sustainable. In this regard, considering the results we have reached with our studies, with the analysis of the data consulted by the official databases and the in-depth studies carried out using micro-data available at the moment, it seems appropriate to propose policy indications strongly oriented to migrants' life projects and territorial inequalities. As far as the intentions of individuals are concerned, on the one hand, the contribution of foreigners to ageing requires policies that allow foreigners to achieve their intentions of fertility in Italy. In particular, policies focused in reducing inequalities to enable women to make their own free choices from the perspective of the realization of their fertility ideals. In addition, the policies should also enable foreigners to carry out their migration projects. Activating policies that facilitate family reunification could induce migrants to stay and their families could grow more easily. In this regard, we recommend activating ad hoc policies in times of economic uncertainty or risk aimed at increasing the economic integration of the whole family. About the interventions targeting regional inequalities, our studies reveal important territorial differences, recognizing the regional disparities in the contribution of foreign and Italian women to declining fertility, tailored policy interventions may be necessary to address specific local challenges.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: Intermediate results: we examined how employment instability affects (quasi-)completed fertility in Italy, using data from the survey Family and Social Subjects (2016). We analysed cohorts born between 1966–1975 and compared them to earlier cohorts (1951–1965) and found that fragmented employment and atypical work decrease the likelihood of parenthood and lead to fewer children. This suggests that rising labour market instability not only delays childbearing but also reduces overall fertility, particularly for men and younger cohorts. Our findings indicate that recovery from employment instability's effects on childbearing is insufficient, at least in Italy.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
The instability effects that we found are already substantial in the cohorts under study and can reasonably be expected to grow further among those cohorts excluded from our analyses as they have yet to complete their fertility histories. Italy's policy orientation - in line with that of the other Southern European countries - favouring additional labour market deregulation at the margins clashes with the increasing awareness – among social scientists – of the social and demographic consequences of rising career fragmentation and instability. From a socio-demographic perspective, if our results are to be believed, interventions seem urgent.
Content: We study the variation of fertility of foreigners in Italy as a multidimensional phenomenon, therefore considering not only changes in birth rates but also its given determinants. Subsequently we quantify the weight and variety of contributions to changes in fertility indicators (e.g. Crude Birth Rate - CBR) resulting from alterations in the population composition or behaviours of both foreign and Italian women between 2009 and 2019.
Data collection: We selected indicators between 2009 and 2019. The analysis is at the provincial level (NUTS3) and the data were collected from the ISTAT database. Based on previous studies, we selected specific fertility indicators for Italian and foreign nationality women (for the overall list of indicators adopted, we refer to the contribution cited in the outputs).
Data Analysis: Our analysis employs the Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modelling technique to dissect and isolate the impact of socio economic determinants to the natural population change in Italy, considering the sub-populations of native and foreigners women.
Dissemination Activities: Writing of scientific articles and presentations at national and international conferences.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles are ongoing.
Content: Contributing to the international debate by filling the need of studies on fertility behaviours, we disentangle the contributions of non-national and Italian women to overall population change attributable to changesin their reproductive behaviours and population composition.
Data collection: We collected demographic statistics available at the provincial level (NUTS3-107 provinces) from ISTAT for 2010 and 2019. We used this indicators: overall population change, population by sex and age for Italian and foreign women, demographic events from Italians and foreign women (births).
Data Analysis: Our analyses differentiate the contributions of foreign women to the overall population change. This approach aims to illuminate the size and diversity of contributions to changes in fertility indicators (e.g. Crude Birth Rate - CBR) attributable to shifts in the composition or behaviors of foreign and Italian women during this period.
Dissemination Activities: Writing of scientific articles and presentations at national and international conferences.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles are ongoing.
Content: The research is ongoing demonstrating that the direct and indirect contributions of international migrations to overall population change can vary between different territories. The objective is to defining the impact of foreign presence to the evolution of age structures at the municipality level. In particular, it seeks to address fundamental questions such as: How is the impact of international migration on local aging distributed?Does the distribution of international migration suggest a greater impact in some areas of the country than in others? Does the contribution of international migration to ageing vary by citizenship? Are there differences in age structure of foreigners and their fertility by citizenship?
Data collection: We collected demographic statistics available at the municipality level from ISTAT for 2010 and 2019. We used the following indicators: total fertility rate of Italian women, life expectancy at birth, internal and external net migration, percentage of foreign population, mean age of the foreign population, total fertility rate of foreign women.
Data Analysis: In order to analyse the contribution of the foreign population to ageing processes at the local level in Italy, we use data at the municipalities level, on which we apply a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) with a Bayesian approach, which allows us to study the variability due both to individual covariates and to the spatial structure of the territorial units. This type of model is frequently employed in the literature due to its capacity to account for the interaction between space and time
Dissemination Activities: Writing of scientific articles and presentations at national and international conferences.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles are ongoing.
Content: Some members of the group focused on researching how the self-perceived health status of native and European immigrant individuals changes based on the origin of the partner (native or immigrant). It focuses on the differences in health between homogamous (same origin) and heterogamous (different origin) couples, taking into account socio-demographic and contextual variables. Other members of the group continued their ongoing research on different topics.
Data collection: With reference to the research on the self-perceived health status of native and European immigrant individuals, the data comes from the European Values Study 2017–2020, which covers 37 European countries. 21 countries are selected where at least 3% of respondents were involved in a mixed union. The dataset includes information about: self-perceived health status, national origin of respondent and partner, education, employment, family composition, type of welfare in the country.
Data Analysis: Binary logistic regression models are used in three specifications (Null, Individual, Couple), distinguishing between men and women. Predicted probabilities of declaring ill health are estimated, progressively checking for individual and couple characteristics.
Scientific Publications: The work is proposed as the first systematic contribution in Europe on the association between type of couple (by origin) and self-perceived health status, with references to recent literature on migrants, health and mixed couples. The authors plan further investigations to investigate the possible "healthy migrant effect" found among immigrant women.
Content: In the period considered, the group has developed the following lines of research:
Data collection: For work on ageing and welfare, Istat and INPS data (1982–2023) are used. The variables include age structure, fertility, migration flows, income, health conditions, type and amount of pensions. Other used sources are ISTAT data (2001–2022) at the municipal level for Italy, as well as population and mobility registers for Italy and Spain (2008–2021).Last dataset used includes DHS 2022 microdata for Ghana.
Data Analysis: The methodological approaches are diversified: OLS and geographically weighted regressions for aging; ST-BSS for spatio-temporal decomposition; GWPCA to assess local heterogeneity; construction of innovative indices (PTR, MST, BST) for comparative analysis; mortality indicators and survival improvement rates (MIR) for the study in the elderly; analysis of territorial and gender disparities in pension benefits; multinomial logistic regressions for Ghanaian migration.
Scientific contribution: The research makes distinct but complementary contributions: it clarifies the indirect role of the foreign population in the processes of Italian ageing; introduces innovative spatiotemporal forecasting tools; shows the usefulness of geostatistical techniques to capture the complexity of demographic changes; offers new measures of demographic turnover from a comparative perspective; and documents how ageing and territorial inequalities shape welfare and the sustainability of the Italian pension system. At the same time, it updates the evidence on African internal migration with a gender perspective. This latter aspect is particularly relevant, as it allows us to compare migration patterns in a developing country with those observed in a developed country such as Italy, highlighting both commonalities and divergences in demographic drivers, socio-economic determinants and policy implications. The work as a whole demonstrates the importance of integrating advanced demographic, spatial and statistical approaches to interpret contemporary socio-demographic transformations.
Content: The studies conducted in the quarter investigate inequalities in life courses, employment paths, family trajectories, demographic dynamics and social rights in adulthood and old age, adopting complementary and integrated perspectives. The research simultaneously addresses: (i) the effect of documentary status on the employment outcomes of Albanian migrants in the host country; (ii) the interplay between international migration, union formation and citizenship acquisition across origin, gender and age; (iii) the contribution of foreign women to fertility dynamics in Italy; (iv) the spatial mobility of the elderly (60+) in Italy and Spain, distinguishing between younger seniors (60–74) and the oldest old (75+), as well as between internal and international migration flows; (v) pension inequalities and territorial ageing in Italy; (vi) territorial and gender pension disparities between Italian provinces. Together, these studies outline a coherent line of research on multiple and intersecting fractures—territory, gender, legal status, family trajectories, demographic behaviour and later-life mobility—that structure access to work, citizenship, reproduction, welfare benefits and local resources over the life course, particularly in strongly ageing societies.
Data collection: The analyses rely on highly integrated and original data sources. Migration and employment inequalities are investigated using the representative survey “Return Migration and Reintegration in Albania” (2013), which provides detailed information on migration paths, documentary status and first employment in the host country. Family trajectories and citizenship transitions are analysed through the FOLSCI survey, a large representative dataset on migrants present in Lombardy, Lazio, Campania and Apulia, with an oversampling of older migrants and, for the first time, information on country of birth. Fertility dynamics rely on ISTAT provincial data (2002–2022). Finally, elderly mobility is analysed using official municipal migration flow data from ISTAT and INE, covering annual internal and international inflows and outflows by age for all Italian and Spanish municipalities over the period 2011–2020. On the territorial and welfare side, 44 provincial indicators for Italy (2023) derived from ISTAT–INPS integration are used, covering demographic structure, pension income and labour market conditions, often disaggregated by gender.
Data Analysis: On the migration side, multivariate regression models estimate the relationship between documentary irregularity and the probability of employment or self-employment, controlling for individual and migration project characteristics. Sequence analysis techniques reconstruct family and citizenship trajectories, followed by multinomial regression models. Fertility studies rely on counterfactual total fertility rate scenarios and spatio-temporal geostatistical models to capture territorial heterogeneity, temporal dynamics and medium-term projections. Elderly mobility is examined through descriptive and spatial flow analyses at the municipal scale, distinguishing age groups (60–74; 75+) and migration typologies (internal vs international; inflows vs outflows). On the territorial side, multidimensional and hierarchical cluster analysis are combined to map heterogeneous provincial profiles and identify groups of provinces united by levels of pension income, population ageing and gender gaps.
Scientific contribution: The studies converge in showing that territorial disadvantage, gender, legal irregularity, family transitions, migration-related demographic behaviours and later-life mobility are structural and cumulative determinants of inequality across the life course. By jointly analysing labour market access, family formation, fertility dynamics, elderly spatial mobility and pension outcomes, this research advances an integrated understanding of how inequalities are produced, reproduced and spatially redistributed in Southern European ageing societies. It opens new comparative research directions on work–family–migration–pension transitions, demographic behaviours, local welfare demand and the long-term sustainability and equity of European welfare regimes.
Policy Brief: A policy brief on measures to support migrants’ integration in the ageing societies is currently in progress.
Content: During the last quarter of 2025, the research group continued its work on the demographic dynamics of migrant populations in ageing societies, with particular attention to fertility behaviours, family trajectories, migration processes and labour conditions among migrants both in Italy and in the general European context. The research focused on several interconnected lines of investigation. First, the group further explored the determinants of migrants’ fertility intentions in Italy, analysing how reproductive plans differ across gender, origin and migration histories. Particular attention was devoted to the role of socio-demographic characteristics, migratory trajectories and family arrangements in shaping short-term fertility intentions among migrants. Second, the project deepened the study of migrants’ life-course transitions, investigating the sequencing of international migration, union formation and acquisition of Italian citizenship. This perspective situates migration within a broader life-course framework, allowing the identification of heterogeneous trajectories across gender, origin and age groups. Third, the research group examined the socio-economic and labour conditions of migrant women employed in domestic and care work across several European countries. This line of research contributes to the understanding of migrant labour segmentation and vulnerabilities in the care sector, highlighting the structural role of migrant women in sustaining welfare systems in ageing societies. Overall, the activities carried out during this period further strengthened the project’s interdisciplinary approach by combining demographic, sociological and statistical perspectives to study the complex relationship between migration, family dynamics, labour markets and population ageing.
Data collection: The analyses carried out in this period relied on multiple data sources. For the study on migrants’ fertility intentions and family trajectories, the analyses used data from the FOLCSI survey (Formation, Employment, Care Work and Health of Immigrants and Persons with a Migratory Background in Italy), conducted between May and November 2024 on a representative sample of approximately 12,600 individuals of foreign origin residing in Lombardy, Lazio, Campania and Apulia. The survey, founded by the University of Bari within the scope of the Age-It Extended Partnership, includes detailed information on migration histories, family formation, citizenship acquisition, health conditions, education, employment status and migratory intentions. For the research on migrant female domestic and care workers, the analyses relied on the ad-hoc module of the EU Labour Force Survey 2021, which provides harmonised microdata across European countries and allowed a comparative analysis of migrant workers in Germany, Spain, France and Italy.
Data Analysis: Different methodological approaches were employed depending on the research line. The study on migrants’ fertility intentions applied binary logistic regression models, distinguishing between men and women and focusing on the probability of declaring the intention to have a child within three years. Explanatory variables included country of birth, age at arrival, duration of stay, parity, educational attainment, employment status, health conditions, type of couple (mixed vs endogamous), region of residence, legal status and migratory intentions. The analysis of family and citizenship trajectories employed sequence analysis techniques, allowing the reconstruction of migrants’ life-course trajectories based on the timing and ordering of three key events: international migration, union formation and acquisition of Italian citizenship. These trajectories were subsequently analysed through multinomial regression models to identify the association between trajectory types and individual characteristics. Finally, the study on migrant domestic and care workers used logistic regression models to compare migrant female workers with other groups of workers, investigating differences in working conditions, job characteristics and socio-demographic profiles across European welfare regimes.
Dissemination Activities: During the reference period, the project produced an intense set of dissemination activities at national and international level. Members of the research group participated in the Festival of Statistics and Demography (Treviso, 17-19 October 2025), contributing to the panel “Think Demography, Think Positive!”, which discussed the demographic implications of population ageing and challenged the dominant narrative that frames ageing exclusively as a negative phenomenon. The discussion involved scholars, institutional representatives and policy actors, fostering dialogue between academic research and public debate. The research team also participated in the Annual Meeting of Social Statisticians (Treviso, 17 October 2025) presenting research on the characteristics and working conditions of migrant female domestic and care workers in Europe. Further dissemination activities took place at the Second General Meeting of the Age-It Programme (Naples, 29-31 October 2025) where several research contributions were presented on migrants’ fertility intentions, family trajectories and labour conditions. The group also contributed to the organisation and scientific activities of the 4th International Conference of the EAPS Working Group on Migrant and Minority Fertility, held at the University of Bari Aldo Moro (2–3 October 2025), where members of the project served as organisers, session chairs and presenters. Additionally, the team participated in the International Workshop for the dissemination of the results of the Spoke 8 of The Age-It Programme: Cultural and Political Dimension of Ageing, organised at the University of Bari Aldo Moro (20–21 November 2025), presenting research on migration trajectories and ageing dynamics.
Scientific Publications: Writing activities continued during the reporting period, including the preparation of scientific papers and conference presentations. Among the outputs of the project is a collective scientific contribution analysing the relationship between migration, integration and population ageing in Italy, published within a volume dedicated to migrant inclusion and integration in the European context.
We presented our studies at national and international conference with publication of proceedings:
We have also published: