Leader: Laura Terzera (UNIMIB); Other collaborator(s):
In response to population ageing, the need arises to study the evolution of couple formation and fertility differentials between natives and the foreign-born to quantify the impact of immigration on overall propensity to form a couple and on fertility. It is also crucial to verify whether and how migrants may contribute to population’s natural change in Italy. It will also be important to understand whether the convergence between migrant and native women fertility levels results from a process of migrants’ adaptation and assimilation, and to analyse the effect of factors such as national origin, pre-migration fertility, time of arrival, area of residence, naturalization and migratory project (work or familiar migrant).
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results
Our research group has been using two data sources, i.e., *ISTAT family projections* (2021-2041) and the yearly survey *ORIM* (2008-2019), in order to conduct a projection analysis on the evolution of families with at least one foreign member in Lombardy. By exploring different scenarios, we are producing preliminary results at this stage. Also, together with the research group that won the call, we are carrying out a check procedure on the questionnaire to be used for the survey on population of foreign origin in Italy.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
Measures to facilitate family reunification for settlement and family enlargement among first-generation migrants are objectives that should be included in the migration policies of countries with strong ageing trends. On the other hand, social policies to address the problems (e.g. housing, child support, etc.) of established families with a migrant background, who often belong to the most segregated strata of the population, should be included in policy agendas.
Content: Based on the assumption that the strength of the role played by immigration, in the medium to long term, operates through family formation, we aim to estimate the number of immigrants’ joined families – that are more likely to settle than the others – and to identify the stable component of immigrated population also on the basis of its past trend in order to depict future scenarios.
Data collection: On the basis of ORIM (Osservatorio Regionale per l’integrazione e la multietnicità) datasets we grouped respondents by household composition with ISTAT approach (Lone person, Couple without children, Lone parent, Couple with children, Never married child. Other person) and Created the emigration family types (joint, partially joint, not joint).
Data Analysis: We use a case study: investigation of immigrants’ families composition evolution in the Italian region Lombardy.
Dissemination Activities: Dissemination efforts have already begun and are ongoing.
Policy brief: The still high proportion of individuals living far from their families suggests on the one hand intentions not to reunite, especially for those who have a long migratory duration behind them, but on the other hand highlights the need for streamlining family reunification procedures as well as the required conditions. Furthermore, especially in the presence of minor children, work/family conciliation measures are particularly important, given that there is often no presence of parents who could help the family. Finally, for migrant families a very relevant aspect is that of housing, especially if they live in urban/metropolitan centres where rent prices are particularly high. It is therefore suggested to provide financial assistance with regards to accommodation.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles is ongoing.
Content: Another front of research has opened up in relation to migrant families. In particular, the role of the family in the occupational status of young migrants or children of migrants, whether they are second, intermediate or first generations. While, across European countries, Italian youth shows among the highest NEETs rate – the share of 15-29 years “Not in Education, Employment nor Training” – and first-generation immigrants record a high level of labour market participation, second-generations seem to assimilate more to natives than to the first-generation immigrant youth.
Data collection: 2021 Italian Labour Force Survey (LFS)
Data Analysis: Using these data the aim is to explore the NEET condition focusing on the interaction between the migrant background and family status to highlight whether second-generation youth assimilates to behaviours of native background youth, as the NEET rate would suggest, or rather, they reproduce first-generation immigrants’ behaviours, once the relevant differences in age structure and family status of the different groups are taken into account.
Policy brief: Scientific implications, and consequently policy action, appear to be linked in particular to the convergence of the behaviour of young children of second or intermediate generation immigrants with that of the native population with regard to the NEET condition. However, more in-depth analyses to be carried out in the coming months may provide indications of the factors that may influence this convergence of behaviour to a greater or lesser extent.
Scientific Publications: Writing of abstracts, working papers, and scientific articles is ongoing.
During these three months, the team focused, through collaboration with ISTAT, on implementing a study of marriages with the presence of at least one individual with a migration background using the linkage of different official archives.
The literature review has identified several crucial points in this area to remember. Marriages of foreigners, especially mixed marriages, are usually taken as an indicator of integration. In particular, the family dynamics are indicators of wider social, economic, and cultural integration. On the other hand, cultural background and integration significantly impact family stability. It is also important to distinguish between immigrants who arrived as adults and those who migrated during childhood. Both individual preferences and contextual factors influence partner choice.
Another important step in the analysis of the individual life cycle is the acquisition of a residence permit, which allows one to start a new life in another country. In recent years, the reasons for coming to Italy have changed. To capture the changes in citizenship over the life cycle of individuals and marriages, the classic Italian/foreign dichotomy is being overcome by the 'new' segment of Italian citizens of foreign origin.
We study different types of couples: couples with foreign spouses, couples in which one spouse is foreign and the other Italian (by acquisition or by birth), and, finally, couples in which both spouses are Italian by acquisition.
From a longitudinal perspective, the analysis by marital cohort makes it possible to observe what happens regarding citizenship acquisition and family behaviour. Focusing on the sequence of steps that have characterised the path of integration of new citizens, the general idea is to compare different profiles, considering the main socio-demographic characteristics of the spouses.
The primary data sources are the "Survey on Marriages" conducted by the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) and the ISTAT dataset on residence permits for non-EU citizens, based on data provided by the Ministry of the Interior.
These datasets have been linked to the ISTAT archive of new citizens (people who have acquired Italian citizenship) to understand, for example, the different propensities to acquire Italian citizenship after marriage and to discover whether Italian spouses are of foreign origin.
In addition, the deterministic linkage of records makes it possible to follow cohorts of new arrivals (new residence permits) over time and to analyse their propensity to marry in Italy based on the different reasons for their residence permits (work, study, protection, etc.).