The project is based on the availability of two population-based cohorts characterized by a large number of participants and extensive data, providing high detail on health determinants, including air pollution. The objectives of the project are: (i) to collect detailed data on climatic variables and acquire additional information on environmental pollution to improve the level of detail; (ii) to analyze the influence of environmental exposures related to climate change and air pollution, also considering their combined effects; (iii) to develop guidelines for the prevention or mitigation of health risks and disseminate them both among professionals and the general population, with particular attention to the most vulnerable groups, such as older adults.
December 2024 – April 2025
The AIRCLIMACT project has completed all planned activities under Work Packages (WPs) 1–5 for the reporting period.
In WP1 (Coordination), the coordinators managed the collection of air pollution and climate data from the participating regions, coordinated research activities on the study cohorts, and initiated the project’s dissemination efforts along with the presentation of preliminary results.
In WP2 (Data Source Integration), environmental and climate data (2000–2020) were obtained from the Expanse consortium and subsequently integrated into the project databases. Analyses of pollutant concentrations and correlations between air pollutants were carried out, and the first maps were produced. Similar analyses on temperature data are currently ongoing.
In WP3 (Moli-sani Cohort Analysis), the follow-up of the Moli-sani cohort was updated through linkage with regional information systems for mortality and chronic diseases.
In WP4 (RoCAV Cohort Analysis), the same activities were conducted in parallel for the RoCAV cohort, updating follow-up data related to chronic-degenerative diseases.
Finally, in WP5 (Dissemination and Guidelines), a scientific article previously initiated on environmental risks and COVID-19 was completed, followed by public dissemination activities through the media. The project was also presented to the local population, and preliminary findings were shared with university students and professionals who responded to our invitation.
May 2025 – September 2025
For WP2, the first analyses were conducted to develop variables related to climate.
For WP3, survival analyses were performed to examine the effects of pollutants and climate indices on health, and the harmonization of all analyses across the two centers is currently underway.
For WP5, the results obtained so far have been summarized in abstracts for national and international conferences (some of which have already been presented). A manuscript is being finalized on the association between air pollution and the risk of cardiovascular diseases in the general population, stratified by age and other risk factors.
October 2025 – December 2025
During the final reporting period, the AIRCLIMACT project focused on advanced analyses, cross-cohort integration, and dissemination of results.
In WP2 (Data Source Integration), previously harmonized exposure variables were used to support advanced analyses, including principal component analyses and cross-cohort meta-analytical approaches.
In WP3 (Moli-sani Cohort Analysis), principal component analyses identified key climatic and environmental exposure patterns, which were tested in Cox models and showed significant associations with mortality outcomes. Machine learning survival models were developed for mortality prediction, with Survival XGBoost showing the best performance and interpreted through SHAP analyses. All planned deliverables were completed.
In WP4 (RoCAV Cohort Analysis), follow-up data were finalized and Cox models completed to evaluate associations between air pollution and mortality. Additional analyses addressed PM2.5 and cardiovascular outcomes, including lifestyle mediation, leading to a manuscript submission. All milestones were achieved.
In WP5 (Dissemination and Guidelines), results were presented at national and international conferences. The final dissemination event was held at LUM University, supported by outreach activities and media coverage. Manuscripts were finalized and submitted, completing all WP5 deliverables.