Leader: Gianfranco Santoro (INPS); Other collaborator(s): Giuseppe Pio Dachille (INPS), Agar Brugiavini (UNIVE)
Estimate the profiles of working careers and other socio-economic characteristics with good quality administrative data on wages/earnings over the life course (INPS) and information about spells out of work (including health related absence from work), plus knowledge of institutional changes such as retirement ages.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
Econometric analysis of the dynamics of the working careers of Italian workers and their employability prior to retirement. The empirical analysis uses administrative population register social security data of INPS.
Indicators of workers’ employability along the life course were constructed. The empirical strategy exploit workers exposed to a mass-layoff (e.g. exogenous labor market shock) between 2012 and 2021. Recovering workers trajectories in the “estratti conto” up to 10 years after the shock to investigate the long-run effects in terms of employment and dependance on welfare and comparing the profiles of the old (over 50) to those of the young (aged 30-50).
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
Documented individuals’ working career as continuous or a fragmented working path and the consequences on workers’ contribution to social security and for eligibility for a pension at older age.
Estimate the societal impact of the design of welfare measures
1. A detailed map of individuals’ working career looking at fragmented working paths and the consequences on workers’ contribution to social security and for eligibility for a pension at older age.
2. Estimates of the impact of tertiary education availability on long-term labor market outcomes.
3. Estimates of the impact of the digital and green transition on the employability of older workers.
4. Estimates of organizational well-being on firm-level turnover rates and the overall financial performance of firms, as measured by per capita value added and by Return On Assets (ROA) indicators.
5. Estimates of the relevance for the organization of work and the investment in ICT skills and about the role of social partnerships and collective bargaining for counterbalancing risks of job insecurity and difficulty to make ends meet of older workers.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
Identification of the most common "triple" paths at 1, 5 and 10 years after mass-layoff of employment, welfare or pension statuses of the considered sample and tabulation of these outcomes, splitted in laid-off workers aged 51-57 and 58-65 (also with gender heterogeneity)
Estimates produced over the universe of mass-laid off workers between 2012-2022 rather than a sample, thanks to the requested "Estratti conto" database.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
Identification of the most common "triple" paths at 1, 5 and 10 years after mass-layoff of employment, welfare or pension statuses
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
Estimate the profiles of working careers and other socio-economic characteristics with good quality administrative data on wages/earnings over the life course (INPS) and information about spells out of work (including health related absence from work), plus knowledge of institutional changes such as retirement ages.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
The research investigates how older Italian workers (aged 57–62) transition from employment to retirement after experiencing collective dismissals between 2012 and 2018. Using detailed administrative data from INPS, the study examines employment and pension trajectories over the following five years. A quasi-experimental design—leveraging the exogenous nature of collective layoffs—allows for comparison between “non-senior” workers (57–59) and “senior” workers (60–62), matched for key demographic, geographic, and employment characteristics.
Descriptive and econometric analyses (including event-study and caliper matching techniques) reveal significant differences: while both age groups show high transition rates into retirement, the senior group retires in higher proportions, even when eligibility requirements are equal. Conversely, reemployment rates remain low overall, and significantly lower among seniors. These trends suggest a strong behavioral preference for retirement when available, particularly among more educated and productive (in "AKM" sense) workers.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
(1) In term of public policy, the findings challenge the sustainability of pension policies that assume delayed retirement.
(2) In term of industrial policy, they highlight the limited reintegration capacity of older dismissed workers.
(3) In term of scientific contribution, the study contributes robust empirical evidence on behavioral responses to pension incentives in aging labor markets.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
This research investigates the labor market and retirement trajectories of older workers following mass layoffs in Italy during 2012–2018. Leveraging rich administrative data and a quasi-experimental event-study framework, we analyze outcomes for workers aged 57–62 to uncover age-driven heterogeneity in responses to job displacement. Our study contributes to the existing literature by being the first to focus explicitly on mass layoffs of older workers in a European context. We find that retirement becomes the dominant pathway, particularly for those aged 60–62, even when controlling for contributory and labor market characteristics.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
The findings have several implications for policymakers. Targeted employment support for older workers is essential, especially through tailored job-matching and retention strategies. Flexibility in retirement should be coupled with incentives for continued participation, such as phased retirement schemes (for instance, the Altersteilzeitgesetz, the German partial retirement law, introduced in 1996, that allows older workers to gradually reduce their working hours while approaching retirement: the aim was to create smoother transitions from work to full retirement and to open up jobs for younger worker). Stronger linkages between unemployment benefits and pension accrual are needed to provide smoother and more equitable transitions. Moreover, equity concerns must guide pension reforms, especially in addressing lifetime earnings disparities and labor market segmentation. Finally, as retirement resulted the default outcome after displacement, labor market should be capable of accommodating an aging workforce facing shocks. As population aging and pension reform continue to reshape labor markets in Europe, understanding and responding to the behavioral dynamics of retirement will be essential for designing policies that are both sustainable and socially fair.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
This research investigates the labor market and retirement trajectories of older workers following mass layoffs in Italy during 2012–2018. Leveraging rich administrative data and a quasi-experimental event-study framework, we analyze outcomes for workers aged 57–62 to uncover age-driven heterogeneity in responses to job displacement. Our study contributes to the existing literature by being the first to focus explicitly on mass layoffs of older workers in a European context. We find that retirement becomes the dominant pathway, particularly for those aged 60–62, even when controlling for contributory and labor market characteristics.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
The findings have several implications for policymakers. Targeted employment support for older workers is essential, especially through tailored job-matching and retention strategies. Flexibility in retirement should be coupled with incentives for continued participation, such as phased retirement schemes (for instance, the Altersteilzeitgesetz, the German partial retirement law, introduced in 1996, that allows older workers to gradually reduce their working hours while approaching retirement: the aim was to create smoother transitions from work to full retirement and to open up jobs for younger worker). Stronger linkages between unemployment benefits and pension accrual are needed to provide smoother and more equitable transitions. Moreover, equity concerns must guide pension reforms, especially in addressing lifetime earnings disparities and labor market segmentation. Finally, as retirement resulted the default outcome after displacement, labor market should be capable of accommodating an aging workforce facing shocks. As population aging and pension reform continue to reshape labor markets in Europe, understanding and responding to the behavioral dynamics of retirement will be essential for designing policies that are both sustainable and socially fair.
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