Leader: Gabriella Piscopo (UNINA); Other collaborator(s): Rosa Casillo (UNINA), Domenico De Giovanni (UNICAL)
Estimate the impact of the pension reform process on labour supply and on wealth accumulation. Analyse the changes in retirement age and the ageing of workers taking into account the set of employment guarantees. Investigate the full spectrum of the impact of changes in the labour-law rules and provide possible alternative contractual solutions. Estimate the take up of occupational pension funds and their role as complementary funds for retirement. Produce a map of the workforce according to the public/private pension mix.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
- In the context of the Italian closed pension funds, the research examines the effect of information and communication technologies on the choice of sub-funds, which are ranked according to their exposure to the equity market risks. Relaying on a randomized control trial approach, the project aims at making more salient the information relevant to the choice and, more generally, to assess the potential role of fintech for the decisions on the pension domain. Making more salient relevant information and, accordingly, increasing the awareness of relevant trade-offs are policy relevant objectives, given the high share of people enrolled, and 'trapped', in the low return-low risk sub-funds.
- A study of legal aspects of the Italian pension system was launched; within this framework, issues related to pension protection for specific categories of workers, such as non-employed workers, are analyzed and discussed. Moreover, the research is reviewing employment and social security profiles of the gender gap.
- Understanding which instruments are necessary for a fair and sustainable pension system requires knowledge of the multiple financial and demographic variables involved. For this purpose, a comprehensive assessment of the longevity trends is conducted. Observing mortality rates for ages and specific time windows, similarities and differences in mortality are analyzed according to age, year and country. To this aim a multidimensional latent clustering approach to multipopulation mortality data is adopted.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
- The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions.
- Suggestions concerning pension protection for specific categories of workers, such as non-employed workers, are provided.
- A wide assessment of longevity trends, which is crucial for a fair and sustainable pension system, is provided.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
Spatial inequalities and gender differences are the main drivers of unequal ageing.
1. Preliminary estimates show marked geographical patterns, which may contribute significantly to differences in the access to services for older people, suggesting differential resilience to unexpected shocks.
2. The gender gap in mean retirement income increases across cohorts and with age, but the relative gender gap decreases and survivor’s benefits reduce the gap remarkably, especially late in life: hence it is important to consider the whole “welfare package” within the family.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
1. A study of legal aspects of the Italian pension system was launched; within this framework, issues related to pension protection for specific categories of workers, such as non-employed workers, are analyzed and discussed. Moreover, the research is reviewing employment and social security profiles of the gender gap. The legal effects of guaranteeing active ageing have been examined by observing the constitutional importance of current employment demographics.
2. To this aim a multidimensional latent clustering approach to multipopulation mortality data is adopted. Evidence of the economic implications of the different pace of longevity improvements under a gender and a cross-country perspective has been investigated. Moreover, the study explored how longevity evolution reverberates into increasing costs for pension provisions. Using the Lee-Carter model and the Human Mortality Database (HMD) data of six EU countries (Italy, in particular), the dynamics of the price of a temporary life annuity, issued in different calendar years, have been assessed.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications:
- Guidelines have been formulated on how the principle of active ageing impacts the employment relationship. Furthermore, older workers' health protection issues have been examined in order to prevent work-related hazards.
- Critical insights have been provided in relation to the use of Information and Communication Technologies applied to health (ICTH).
- The main policy addresses consider how the employment relationship is influenced by active ageing principles, with particular emphasis on age management and its effect on both employer debt and senior worker credit position.
- With respect to the past, in all the countries under study, underwriting a life annuity is becoming progressively more expensive, with similarities between countries especially in relation to the cost of longevity risk protection for females.
- Evidence of the economic implications of the different pace of longevity improvements under a gender and a cross-country perspective has been obtained. In terms of policy indications, it is noteworthy to observe that the steady increase in prices of life annuity shows a different pace over the considered time horizon, for the two genders and for the countries under study.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results:
The legal effects of guaranteeing active ageing have been examined by observing the constitutional importance of current employment demographics. Furthermore, older workers' health protection issues have been examined in order to prevent work-related hazards. Critical insights have been provided in relation to the use of Information and Communication Technologies applied to health (ICTH). Moreover, a multidimensional latent clustering approach to multipopulation mortality data was adopted. Evidence of the economic implications of the different pace of longevity improvements under a gender and a cross-country perspective has been investigated.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications:
- Place a proper value on the role of financial incentives for retirement.
- Extend social protection (e.g., minimal allowances) to self-employed caregivers for family care periods,
- Prioritize caregivers for remote and flexible work options, with potential business incentives for workplace adjustments
Dissemination Events:
- XLVII Annual Meeting of the Italian Association for Mathematics Applied to Social and Economic Sciences University of Milano-Bicocca, September 20-21-22, 2023
- 26th International Congress on Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 04 - 07 July 2023,
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, p.14
- the 26th International Congress on Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 04 - 07 July 2023,
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh
- the 20th Conference of the Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Society ASMDA2023 and Demographics2023 Workshop, 6-9 June 2023, Heraklion, Crete, Greece.
- AHL-Napoli 2023: Scaling-up digital solutions for active and healthy living: implementing across scientific disciplines, industrial sectors and scenarios, University of Naples Federico II, 13-15 November 2023
- International Conference on Scientific Computing, Modeling and Simulation (ICSCMS-23), 29th November 2023, London, UK
- International Conference “Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. MAF 2024”. University of Le Havre Normandie, Le Havre Cedex, April 4-6, 2024
- The 1st SWUFE-Sapienza International Finance Workshop
- AGE-It General Meeting. Age-It announced the Call for Papers for the General Meeting, organized by Spoke 6, which took place in Venice at the Ca’ Foscari University from May 20th to May 22nd at San Giobbe Economic Campus – Cannaregio 873 – 30121 Venice. During the meeting, parallel sessions were hold dedicated to the research conducted by members of the Age-It community. Each session focused on a broad theme with contributions from various disciplines. Every session emphasized the implications of the research for practice and policies in the biomedical, demographic, social, and economic fields, and/or on technological innovation. The General Meeting was an important dissemination event that reached and engaged more than 400 participants. The main results presented and discussed at the Age-It general meeting, received significant attention by the research community and are expected to influence both practice and policies for an active and healthy ageing.
- 33rd European Conference on Operational Research, 30th June-3rd July 2024, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Copenhagen, Denmark
- Scandinavian Actuarial Conference 2024, University of Copenhagen, Denmark – August 14-16, 2024
- XLVIII Annual Conference of the Association for Mathematics Applied to Social and Economic Sciences (AMASES). Ischia, September 5-6-7, 2024.
Scientific Outputs:
- Domenico De Giovanni; Marco Pirra; Fabio Viviano, Joint mortality models based on linear hypercubes, Working paper 2023
- - Apicella G., E. Di Lorenzo, G. Magni, M. Sibillo: Longevity comparison by gender: exploring the future through an evidence-based approach, 2023
- Apicella G., E. Di Lorenzo, G. Piscopo, M. Sibillo: The Functional Clustering of the Mortality Gender Gap: A Multi- country Analysis, 2023
- G. Apicella, E. De Giorgi, E. Di Lorenzo and M. Sibillo: The Gender Longevity Gap: improving economic decisions through demographic literacy. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4331841#Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 23-02
- E. Di Lorenzo, F. Rania, M. Sibillo, A. Trotta: Meeting the challenges of longevity: lifetime income from real estate. In: Corazza, M., Gannon, F., Legros, F., Pizzi, C., Touzé, V. (eds) Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. MAF 2024. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-64273-9_21, ISBN 978-3-031-64272-2, pp. 124-129.
- G. Apicella, E. Di Lorenzo, G. Magni, M. Sibillo: The cost of retirement income provision: some quantitative insights in life insurance. . In: Corazza, M., Gannon, F., Legros, F., Pizzi, C., Touzé, V. (eds) Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. MAF 2024. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-64273-9_1, ISBN 978-3-031-64272-2, pp. 1-6.
- E. Di Lorenzo, G. Piscopo, M. Sibillo, A. Trotta: Looking toward the future: well-ageing solutions from the equity release mortgage. Encyclopedia of Monetary Policy, Financial Markets and Banking, Editor: Nicholas Apergis, Elsevier, 2024, ISBN 9780443157851, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-44-313776-1.00267-1.
- G. Apicella, E. De Giorgi, E. Di Lorenzo and M. Sibillo: Financial and Demographic Literacy: Monetizing the Gender Mortality Gap. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, DOI: 10.1002/asmb.2876, 2024, pp. 1-23 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asmb.2876
- R. Blundell, M. Borella, J. Commault, and M. Nardi (2023) Old Age Risks, Consumption, and Insurance. NBER Working Paper No. 2734
- Rosa Casillo, Permessi e agevolazioni per i lavoratori caregivers familiari (art. 3, comma 1, lett. B, d.lgs. n. 105/2022) in Fili, Garofalo, Tiraboschi, Trojsi, Trasparenza e attività di cura nei contratti di lavoro. Commentario ai decreti legislativo n. 105 e n. 105 del 2022, Adapt Labour Studies e-Book series n. 96, Adapt University Press, 2023, Tomo II, pp. 568- 576, ISBN 979-12-80922-15-1.
- Zied Chaieb, Domenico De Giovanni & Djibril Gueye (10 Oct 2023): Two hybrid models for dependent death times of couple: a common shock approach, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2023.2264555
- Devolder, E. Russo, Alessandro Staino: A flexible lattice model for fair policy valuations under multiple risk factors. Astin Bulletin (2024)
- Claudio Daminato, Mario Padula: The Life-Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: A Structural Approach, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2023; jvad049, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad049
- R. Casillo: La tutela in età di vecchiaia per i lavoratori non subordinati. In corso di stampa Collana di Diritto della sicurezza sociale
- Debon, S. Haberman, G. Piscopo: Multipopulation mortality analysis: bringing out the unobservable with latent clastering. Quality and Quantity, August 2023
- G. Apicella, E. Di Lorenzo, G. Piscopo, M. Sibillo: Lee-Carter model: Assessing the potential to capture gender-related mortality dynamics. Decisions in Economics and Finance (2023) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-023-00417
- E. Di Lorenzo, G. Piscopo, M. Sibillo: Addressing the economic and demographic complexity via a neural network approach: risk measures for reverse mortgages. Computational Management Science 21, 11 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10287-023-00491-x
- E. Di Lorenzo, G. Piscopo, M. Sibillo: Reverse Mortgage: some remarks on the interplay between contract benefit and borrower’s age. Working paper (2023)
- E. Di Lorenzo, G. Piscopo, M. Sibillo: Multi country investigation of the Healthy Life Expectancy. Abstract. AHL-Napoli 2023: Scaling-up digital solutions for active and healthy living: implementing across scientific disciplines, industrial sectors and scenarios, University of Naples Federico II, 13-15 November 2023 (2023)
- Z. Chaieb, D. De Giovanni, D. Gueye (10 Oct 2023): Two hybrid models for dependent death times of couple: a common shock approach, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2023.2264555 https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2023.2264555
- R. Blundell, M. Borella, J. Commault, and M. Nardi (2023) Old Age Risks, Consumption, and Insurance. NBER Working Paper No. 27348
- Rosa Casillo: Invecchiamento e lavoro. Federalismi, ISSN 1826-3534
Numero 19, 2024, pp. 21-53
- Rosa Casillo: L’universalità della tutela di pensione per i lavoratori autonomi. Dottrina Previdenza - il Lavoro nella Giurisprudenza 7/2024, pp. 653-660