Leader: Gianni Corsetti (Istat); Other collaborator(s):
This task addresses the evaluation of the long-lasting impact of ageing and emigration on composition of population in terms of human capital and health status. More specifically, we will take into consideration educational attainment and body mass index. These social dimentions will have implications for environmental sustainability, social organization, economic growth and well-being. Proper statistical methods for derived projections will be developed starting from the data of the official ISTAT demographic forecasts on population and households.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: We have carried out a bibliographic analysis with the aim to study past international exercises of population projections by educational attainment. We focused our attention on multi-state demography model. This model makes it possible to add new dimensions in forecasting, more to age and sex. This model was implemented in the “World Population Program” developed by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for the production of “Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050” (Samir et al, 2010).
We have studied methodology and input data required for running the model. In summary we need:
Base Register on Individuals and Households (BRIH) and Virtual Statistical Registry (ANVIS) are two new micro-based Istat data sources that can allow us to calculate necessary demographic indicators to define future scenarios. We have finalized our data analyses in order to evaluate available information and their quality, in terms of consistency and accuracy.
Data Analysis:
Data processing and quality assessment with the aim to calculate:
Source: Base Register on Individuals and Households (BRIH) and Virtual Statistical Registry (ANVIS)
Brief description of the activities:
Coming soon