Leader: Gianni Corsetti (Istat); Other collaborator(s):
This task addresses the evaluation of the long-lasting impact of ageing and emigration on composition of population in terms of human capital and health status. More specifically, we will take into consideration educational attainment and body mass index. These social dimentions will have implications for environmental sustainability, social organization, economic growth and well-being. Proper statistical methods for derived projections will be developed starting from the data of the official ISTAT demographic forecasts on population and households.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: We have carried out a bibliographic analysis with the aim to study past international exercises of population projections by educational attainment. We focused our attention on multi-state demography model. This model makes it possible to add new dimensions in forecasting, more to age and sex. This model was implemented in the “World Population Program” developed by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for the production of “Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050” (Samir et al, 2010).
We have studied methodology and input data required for running the model. In summary we need:
Base Register on Individuals and Households (BRIH) and Virtual Statistical Registry (ANVIS) are two new micro-based Istat data sources that can allow us to calculate necessary demographic indicators to define future scenarios. We have finalized our data analyses in order to evaluate available information and their quality, in terms of consistency and accuracy.
Data Analysis:
Data processing and quality assessment with the aim to calculate:
Source: Base Register on Individuals and Households (BRIH) and Virtual Statistical Registry (ANVIS)
Brief description of the activities:
STATUS - 31/03/2025
It has been designed and tested the projection model to constrain population projection by level of education to official population forecasts carried out annually by Istat. Official median scenario is the benchmark in order to fully reproduce stocks and flows expected in the projection period.
Projection is realized with an iterative technique between January 1st and December 31st of each year, using the so-called cohort-component method. In order to obtain the population alive at the end of the year, for each age group x and education level i, the following aggregates are added to the initial population:
It is assumed that demographic events can occur linearly at any time of the year and that there is incompatibility between the event of death, migration and transition from one level of education to another; as a consequence the same individual can be involved in only one event in the same year.
We are computing survival probabilities by education level in order to share future total deaths from official forecasts.
For the same purpose, regarding international migrations we are processing recent data to define specific age profiles by education level.
About transition between levels of education, we are evaluating different methodologies in order to compute transition probabilities by age and sex.
Coming soon