Leader: Alessandra De Rose (Sapienza); Other collaborator(s):
Analysis of the impact of population dynamics on workforce size and age structure and interaction with other factors affecting labour market including changes in educational system, participating models by age and gender, structural changes of the productive system and pension reforms. Main data sources: Labour Force Survey (ISTAT); Sample Survey of Occupations (INAPP) ; Survey of accidents at work by occupation (INAIL); Family and Social Subjects Survey 2016 (ISTAT). Focus on selected impacts of a prolonged working life:
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: One of the main objectives of our task is to analyse the occupational structure of the workforce. To this end, data from the Labour Force Survey (ISTAT) have been integrated with data from Lightcast and INAPP databases. These data allow to compute indices for skills demanded in different occupations (based on online job advertisements included in the INAPP “Atlante del Lavoro”), combining information on sector and profession, including hard, soft, and digital skills. By constructing these indices, we identify workers at greater risk of skill obsolescence and labour market expulsion. Preliminary findings suggest that formal training correlates with higher job satisfaction. Conversely, part-time workers (vs. full-time), those from extra-EU countries (vs. Italians), and individuals with higher educational levels (vs. low educated) exhibit lower satisfaction levels. Occupations requiring hard and digital skills are more prone to skill obsolescence.
A second objective is evaluating the impact of getting older in the workforce according to migrant background and its association with job satisfaction. Our study has demonstrated that it is important to distinguish between those who migrated at an older age and those who have aged in the destination country. Preliminary results indicate that migrant female workers are generally less satisfied with their jobs than Italians, especially those who migrated at an older age. No differences are observed among male workers.
Other effects of the prolonged working age on individual health and family life have been explored. Using a US longitudinal study of the health histories and mortality outcomes of a panel of workers, we found that while working longer increases depression, engagement in social activities, as substitutes for work, reduces it. On the same data, the socioeconomic inequalities in Healthy Working Life Expectancy and the association with unhealthy behaviours such as smoking have been documented.
Finally, we studied changes in health with providing informal care to older relatives while still in formal job. Results for Italy confirm that unpaid caregiving is significantly associated with lower self-reported health status, more for women than for men and more for those who are still in the labour market than for inactive individuals.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications: The identification of groups of workers facing skill obsolescence due to age necessitates tailored and targeted interventions to support training among older workers and implement effective turnover policies. Moreover, the decline in job satisfaction presents challenges for companies, requiring initiatives to increase motivation among older employees. Additionally, differences between Italian and foreign workers raise concerns for integration policies, particularly targeting older foreign workers.
The analyses on the US data suggest that forcing people to work instead of retiring could be detrimental for (mental) health while participation in social activities, volunteering, as an alternative to longer working careers for early retirees, could have a role in reducing depression. Moreover, the un-healthy behaviours – such as smoking – should be further fought in order to prolong the Healthy Working Life Expectancy and make workforce ageing more sustainable. These topics will be explored in depth with comparisons with the Italian case, which have so far been precluded in the absence of an adequate longitudinal database. These studies will thus be able to provide insights and suggestions also in the direction of enriching the information pool with innovative data.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: The research themes already outlined in the previous quarter were deepened and novel studies planned with a focus on issues related to older workers’ health and the implications in terms of productivity and socio-economic inequalities. One completed study [1] found the role of educational mismatch as a work-related socioeconomic determinant of the perceived health of the Italian aged workforce. The research is now focussing on the female labour force ageing and how educational mismatch interacts with precarious contracts on health and productivity. Another completed study [2] aimed to uncover the evolution of disability-free grandparenthood at age 65 between 1998 and 2016 in Italy, analysing gains due to the longevity revolution and to grandparenthood–disability prevalence, with a focus on gender differences. This study provides the first evidence of a disability-free grandparenthood trend in Italy, where the health of grandparents is crucial to understanding intergenerational relationships and family dynamics. A methodological study on the misclassification probabilities in the assessment of self-reported health among the elderly population in Italy has been completed and submitted to a scientific journal [3]. Between mid-August and mid-September one recruited researcher stayed for a research period abroad at the Stockholm University Demography Unit. Two studies have been planned: one on the impact of overqualification on job and economic satisfaction in Italy, using data from the Italian Labour Force Survey. The second will examine the relationship between retirement age and health in old age through a longitudinal approach.
With an experimental approach, in the absence yet of adequate data for Italy, analyses were continued on the panel data of the US Health and Retirement Study. Employing a multistate lifetable approach to model individual life courses, we examine socio-economic disparities in healthy working life expectancy and the detrimental effect of smoking behaviour. In another study on the same US data, we assess the causal effect of volunteering on depression among early retirees, its heterogeneity, and how limitations in daily life activities mediate the relationship. Work has also progressed on the satisfaction of older workers both by comparing them by ethnic origin and by assessing the role of skills obsolescence. All the studies in progress have been submitted to national and international scientific conference.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications. The main implications of our studies concern how extended working life affects elderly health, given the rising life expectancy. The results highlight the organizational specificities of the labor market for older workers by providing insights into the issue of health equity, which is also significantly related to the productivity of older workers. Addressing socioeconomic inequalities in healthy working life expectancy and promoting non-smoking habits are crucial for the sustainability of the workforce. Among early retirees, volunteering may be one viable public health strategy for protecting against depression while also allowing individuals to contribute to the public good.
With regard to what stated in the previous report, some work has been completed and some new work started. On the consequences of ageing on health, one study [1] focused on the ageing of female labour force and how educational mismatch interacts with precarious contracts on health and productivity based on data from the INAPP 2021 Participation Labour Unemployment Survey (PLUS). As expected, an association emerged between educational mismatch, precarious employment and poor or very poor health. In another study [2] we examined the prevalence of overqualification among foreign workers relative to natives which negatively affects job and life satisfaction due to lower economic and occupational returns.
Still on the role of education in health disparities later in life, another study [3] provided novel estimates of educational disparities in dementia incidence in an Italian population-based cohort linked to administrative health records. An ongoing study, on U.S. data, show than unhealthy behavioural risk factors – related to educational inequalities - such as smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity significantly reduce the number of cancer-free years expected [4].
Socio-economic disparities over the life course are associated with different health outcomes in later-life also through housing trajectories. Using 2017 SHARELIFE retrospective data, our research [5] showed that non-standard housing tenure trajectories were associated with a health disadvantage in later-life compared to the standard pattern of “early homeowners”, characterized by an early transition and a long-term stay in homeownership.
Finally, in terms of dissemination, we contributed to the 2024 CNEL report with a discussion of possible policy measures and labour force management ensuring the conditions for a long active life [6] and to the ongoing INAPP report with an analysis the demographic dynamics of the working-age population in Italy and Europe, with a focus on current and perspective labour shortages [7].
All these papers, completed and in progress, have been submitted to national and international scientific conference.