Leader: Daniele Vignoli (UNIFI); Other collaborator(s): Raffaele Guetto (UNIFI); Giammarco Alderotti (UNIFI); Marco Cozzani (UNIFI); Elisa Brini (UNIFI); Carlos Gil (UNIFI)
The main perspectives in low fertility suggest that increasing education and female labour market participation are among the main drivers of later and lower fertility in Italy, as well as the role of cultural change (post-materialism, secularization). More recently, the literature has stressed the role of uncertainty, both in its objective economic side (economic crises, rising unemployment and labour market precariousness) and in its subjective side (lack of clarity about the future, also due to shocks such as the pandemic and the war). Task 2.1 will assess the main areas of interventions to face later and lower fertility in Italy analysing the role of economic and cultural factors as well as the mounting importance of uncertainty.
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: Intermediate results: we examined how employment instability affects (quasi-)completed fertility in Italy, using data from the survey Family and Social Subjects (2016). We analysed cohorts born between 1966–1975 and compared them to earlier cohorts (1951–1965) and found that fragmented employment and atypical work decrease the likelihood of parenthood and lead to fewer children. This suggests that rising labour market instability not only delays childbearing but also reduces overall fertility, particularly for men and younger cohorts. Our findings indicate that recovery from employment instability's effects on childbearing is insufficient, at least in Italy.
Main policy, industrial and scientific implications
The instability effects that we found are already substantial in the cohorts under study and can reasonably be expected to grow further among those cohorts excluded from our analyses as they have yet to complete their fertility histories. Italy's policy orientation - in line with that of the other Southern European countries - favouring additional labour market deregulation at the margins clashes with the increasing awareness – among social scientists – of the social and demographic consequences of rising career fragmentation and instability. From a socio-demographic perspective, if our results are to be believed, interventions seem urgent.
Data Collection on "Fertility and Family Life" in collaboration with Task 2.2 (target: 8,000 respondents):
Data Analysis: Analysis of secondary data is either completed or currently in progress.
Scientific Publications: Writing of scientific articles is either completed or ongoing (refer to the publications section).
Policy Brief in collaboration with Task 2.2:
Dissemination Activities: Dissemination efforts have already begun and are ongoing.
Data Collection on "Fertility and Family Life" in collaboration with Task 2.2 (target: 8,000 respondents):
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: Very low fertility in Italy is a social problem as it is largely involuntary and represents a threat to the continuity of the society and to welfare state accounts. Rising economic uncertainty is considered in the literature as one of the driving forces behind the postponement of childbearing and the reduction in fertility rates in contemporary Europe. Understanding whether employment instability causally and negatively impacts fertility decisions is of fundamental importance to providing clear recommendations to policymakers. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary vs. permanent contract on the propensity to first-child conception. Our findings confirm a clear-cut causal effect of temporary employment on first-birth postponement. Largely overlapping previous results, we demonstrate how precarious work has become a structural factor discouraging the transition to parenthood among young Italians.
Data Analysis: Analysis of secondary data is either completed or currently in progress.
Scientific Publications: Writing of scientific articles is either completed or ongoing (refer to the publications section).
Policy Brief in collaboration with Task 2.2:
Dissemination Activities: Dissemination efforts are ongoing, as testified by several participations to scientific appointments and meetings with stakeholders.
Data Collection on "Fertility and Family Life" in collaboration with Task 2.2 (target: 8,000 respondents):
Brief description of the activities and of the intermediate results: We continued the research by adopting a dyadic approach to examine whether higher-income women experience lower fertility due to opportunity costs and conventional gender norms or whether resource pooling within couples facilitates parenthood. We test the well-established gendered relationship between income and fertility in Italy, a country historically known for its division of family roles along traditional gender lines. Utilising longitudinal tax data (2003–2021; n=5,384,425 person-years) from Tuscany—an Italian region representing average levels of economic development and gender equality in Europe—we apply discrete-time event-history analyses. Results show that higher earnings for both men and women increase the likelihood of first birth, with couples in which both partners are high earners being the most likely to have children and low-income couples the least likely. These findings challenge traditional sex-specialisation models and support the view that couples’ income pooling is a key factor for parenthood. While the positive income-fertility association remained stable for married couples, it grew stronger among single/cohabitors in the late 2010s, suggesting a link between rising economic barriers to parenthood and income inequality in fertility.
Data Analysis: Analysis of secondary data is either completed or currently in progress.
Scientific Publications: Writing of scientific articles is either completed or ongoing (refer to the publications section).
Policy Brief in collaboration with Task 2.2:
Dissemination Activities: Dissemination efforts are ongoing, as testified by several participations to scientific appointments and meetings with stakeholders.